The Three Horizon Model is a futures thinking framework developed by Bill Sharpe, a British social innovator, to help individuals and organizations envision and navigate multiple possible futures. The model focuses on how to create long-term systemic change by recognizing and addressing the interplay of current, emerging, and desirable futures. It is a tool often used in strategic planning, futures studies, and systems thinking to help people think creatively and critically about how today’s actions can influence tomorrow’s world.

The Three Horizon Model identifies three distinct “horizons” or phases that represent different future scenarios. These horizons help us examine both the present and the future in a structured, dynamic way, enabling us to understand how change happens over time and how we might influence it.

Description of the Three Horizon Model:

1. Horizon 1 (H1) – The Current System:

• Horizon 1 represents the current system or status quo. This horizon is concerned with how things are functioning today, including existing practices, technologies, structures, and social norms. In this horizon, the focus is on the incremental changes and improvements within the existing system.
• People typically resist change within this horizon because they are deeply embedded in existing systems, making it harder to envision alternatives or disruptions. The mindset in Horizon 1 is often shaped by short-term concerns and immediate practicalities.

2. Horizon 2 (H2) – The Transitional Space:

• Horizon 2 represents the transitional phase where change is emerging. This is where innovation, new ideas, and practices begin to take shape. Horizon 2 focuses on the shifts between the current system (Horizon 1) and the more transformative future (Horizon 3).
• In this horizon, there is a tension between maintaining old systems and adopting new ones. Ideas, technologies, and practices that may seem disruptive or alternative in Horizon 1 gain traction. The changes here are non-linear, involving experimentation and uncertainty. Horizon 2 is where new ideas begin to challenge the old system, but not yet in a fully integrated way.

3. Horizon 3 (H3) – The Transformative Future:

• Horizon 3 represents the visionary, future state that might emerge if the trends and innovations from Horizon 2 are fully realized. This is the idealized, transformative future—a new system where radical change has occurred and where sustainable practices, alternative ways of living, or new societal structures have become the norm.
• In Horizon 3, we focus on the possibilities of what could be. This horizon is concerned with long-term, deep systemic change and the potential for breakthroughs in areas like technology, sustainability, social equity, and governance.

How the Three Horizon Model Works:

• The Three Horizon Model encourages people to explore the interactions and tensions between the present, emerging trends, and future possibilities. By considering all three horizons simultaneously, participants can recognize early signs of change, make strategic decisions about future development, and plan for a more sustainable and desirable future.
• Rather than seeing the future as a singular, linear progression, the Three Horizon Model helps to reveal the complexity and uncertainty in future possibilities. It allows individuals and groups to explore multiple futures, providing a framework for engaging in creative foresight and long-term planning.

Benefits of the Three Horizon Model in Learning and Education:

1. Encourages Long-Term Thinking and Visioning:

• The Three Horizon Model helps learners and decision-makers move beyond short-term thinking and reactive approaches. By considering multiple potential futures, individuals and organizations can engage in proactive and purposeful visioning, focusing on long-term goals and sustainability rather than short-term fixes. This broadens the scope of learning and decision-making to include both immediate needs and future possibilities.

2. Stimulates Creative Problem-Solving:

• By presenting three different perspectives—current realities, emerging changes, and future possibilities—the Three Horizon Model encourages creative thinking. Learners are prompted to think about what new systems, technologies, or social arrangements might emerge from the current system and how they can contribute to shaping these futures. This fosters innovative problem-solving as learners imagine novel solutions to complex challenges.

3. Supports Systemic Thinking and Holistic Understanding:

• The Three Horizon Model encourages systems thinking by showing how the present system is interconnected with emerging trends and future scenarios. It helps individuals understand that the future is not a linear progression from the present, but a result of the interplay between various forces, including cultural, political, economic, and environmental factors. This understanding helps to build holistic, integrated solutions to complex challenges.

4. Builds Capacity for Change and Adaptability:

• Engaging with the Three Horizon Model helps learners understand that change is inevitable and that the future is shaped by the decisions we make today. By exploring different potential futures, learners can become more adaptable and resilient to change, equipping them with the tools to respond effectively to shifting circumstances and emerging challenges. This methodology teaches flexibility and adaptation in the face of uncertainty.

5. Enhances Strategic Foresight and Planning:

• The model helps individuals and organizations to think strategically about how to transition from the present system (Horizon 1) to a more desirable future (Horizon 3). It encourages learners to consider alternative futures, assess the implications of various trends, and make informed decisions that align with long-term sustainability goals. This enhances the foresight and strategic planning capabilities of learners, enabling them to anticipate and navigate future challenges more effectively.

6. Promotes Collective Collaboration and Shared Visioning:

• The Three Horizon Model is a powerful tool for facilitating collaborative learning. By discussing and visualizing different possible futures with others, participants develop a shared understanding of how the future may unfold and what roles they can play in shaping it. It fosters collective intelligence and helps groups build a shared vision for the future, motivating collaborative action toward common goals.

7. Encourages Mindfulness of the Present and Future:

• By comparing the current system with emerging trends and possible futures, the Three Horizon Model brings attention to the present moment and how current actions shape future outcomes. This promotes mindfulness of the choices being made today and encourages learners to reflect on the longer-term implications of their decisions. This awareness helps individuals and groups make more thoughtful, impactful choices.

8. Identifies Emerging Patterns and Signals of Change:

• The Three Horizon Model is particularly useful for identifying emerging patterns, trends, and signals of change. By exploring the interactions between Horizons 1, 2, and 3, learners are better able to detect early signs of change and innovation that may lead to breakthroughs or disruptions in existing systems. This early identification of opportunities and risks can inform more agile decision-making and help organizations stay ahead of the curve.

Conclusion:

The Three Horizon Model developed by Bill Sharpe offers a powerful framework for exploring and preparing for multiple possible futures. It provides a structured way to think about the present, emerging trends, and transformative futures, helping individuals, organizations, and communities make informed decisions and engage in long-term planning. The benefits of this methodology in education and learning are profound, as it promotes strategic foresight, creative problem-solving, and systemic thinking, while also encouraging adaptability and collaboration. By applying the Three Horizon Model, learners and decision-makers can better understand the complexities of change and contribute to building more sustainable, resilient, and desirable futures.